Actual coronavirus cases in Norway & the UK


Index

1.Project description
2.Theory
3.Implementation
4.Conclusion
5.Refrences

Project description

This project is to do analysis of current corona situations in Norway. According to WHO, corona has 1% death rate but if wee see the number of tested in Norway and death caused by COVID-19 giving different value. The data was gathered from external website sources, a C++ programming code written to be used in root. Similar C++ code used to do the verifications of the work with other country for example UK. Also an root based GUI platform used to give user to analyse the different data for different countries.

Theory

According to the data from Hubei province in china the death rate is around 3.1% of total infected.The idea came out for this project was from the predicted death rate of WHO on covid-19 was 1%. It means if we have total 8400 infected in Norway, the total death will be around 84. From the data we have found so far the deaths in Norway because of COVID-19 are 247 (Approx till 17th of June). If we take it in considerations the death rate is to actual number of infected then the actual number of infected people in Norway will be around 24700.
Data from hyubei province shows that it takes on average 5 days from date of infection and a further 15 days from showing symptoms till death (or recovery) on average. With the doubling time at the peak of transmitiions before lockdown esttimated globaly at 5 days. i.e every 5 days the number of cases double Therfor if 1 person dies today, that implies 100 people were infected 20 days ago, This equates to 4 doubling times, impling that if left uncontrolled, for every 1 death to date there are at the very minimum 1600 infected. This is best illustrated by thomas Pueyo's work[1] as shown below

Implementation

The programme files contains of Norway.CPP, UK.CPP, GUI.C. and the data files are data.txt (Norway) and dataUK.txt. Norway.CPP is for to analyse the data.txt (This data gathered from ourworldindata.org websites. Using root will give the graphical analysis of current corona scenario of Norway. To validate the work another file created for UK corona scenario thats the file called UK.CPP to analyse the data for dataUK.txt. The GUI.C (this file created on the basis of C language because I was unable to run GUI in CPP) to give user interface for changing and read other similar types case scenario. Inside Norway.CPP and UK.CPP there is a function defined, in which I provide the number of deaths and their date, and I choose the variables of Days of infection till death and mortality rate and it provides 2 arrays with the actual number of cases and the corrosponding dates. I then use this result to plot tested cases vs actual (extimated) cases and i give each country a score on testing.






Norway has a score of 35% while the UK scored much lower on testing at 6.7%

Next i explored the possibility of using root as a GUI. I made a simple GUI that asks for the country name, if it finds the country data on the database, which currently only contains norway and the UK, but that can be changed/increased quite simply, It plots the actual number of cases as estimated using thomas pueyo's method.

Get project.tar files here.



Video illustrating the GUI.

Conclusion

In Conclusion it is apparent that most countries fell behind on testing, but also testing doesn't need to be at 100% for a country to handel the crisis well, for example Norway. Using root as a GUI was intresting and definetly a very important commercially viable skil to have. I will continue to use root as a GUI in the future.

Refrences

[1]Article by Thomas Pueyo for Medium.com
[2]
Data source.