Climate Change Studies


Project Description

Climate change describes a change in the average conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, in a region over a long period of time. NASA scientists have observed Earth's surface is warming up, and many of the warmest years on record have happened in the past 20 years.
Climate change is expected to hit developing countries the hardest. Its effects includes higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent weather related disasters—pose risks for agriculture, food, and water supplies. Carbon dioxide (CO2), a minor but very important component of the atmosphere is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by more than a third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important long-lived "forcing" of climate change.
In this project climate change parameters such as global temperature chnage and CO2 emission from China, USA, Norway, France and Pakistan, in the last decades are studied. Increasing temperature trend is extrapolated to the future using mathematical functions to get the expected conditions in the coming years. Analysis is done using the C++ and Root. Openly available historical data from the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal is used to perform these studies.

Data Sets

https://data.worldbank.org/topic/climate-change
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data

program Code

Climate.C

Carbon Dioxide Emission

Carbon dioxide emissions, largely by-products of energy production and use, account for the largest share of greenhouse gases, which are associated with global warming. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions result primarily from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacturing. In combustion different fossil fuels release different amounts of carbon dioxide for the same level of energy use: oil releases about 50 percent more carbon dioxide than natural gas, and coal releases about twice as much. Cement manufacturing releases about half a metric ton of carbon dioxide for each metric ton of cement produced. Data for carbon dioxide emissions include gases from the burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacture, but excludes emissions from land use such as deforestation. The unit of measurement is kt (kiloton). Carbon dioxide emissions are often calculated and reported as elemental carbon. The were converted to actual carbon dioxide mass by multiplying them by 3.667 (the ratio of the mass of carbon to that of carbon dioxide). Fossil fuels like coal and oil contain carbon that plants pulled out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis over the span of many millions of years; we are returning that carbon to the atmosphere in just a few hundred years.

In the first part of the project cabrbon dioxide emission per year for different countries by using world bank's data is studied. In figure 1 Carbon dioxide emission in time for China, USA, Norway, France and Pakistan is shown. China has been the largest CO2 emitter in the world. Figure 1 shows a rapid incresae of CO2 emission from China from 2000 to 2010. CO2 concentration seems highest but stable for China from 2010 to 2014. However from recent years China is trying to reduced its CO2 emission. China's carbon emissions fell by around 25% in 2020 due to shutdown in the country due to COVID-19. USA is the second largest Carbon emitter and its carbon dioxide emission is increasing more or less linearly in time, however from past few years US also decreased its CO2 emission as can be seen in the figure 1. For France, Pakistan and Norway CO2 emission from year 1960 till 2014 is reasonably low and almost constant.

Figure 1

Global Temprature Rise

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth's average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels whicg results in CO2 emission as discussed in the previous section. Figure 2 represents the global temperature rise from 1960 to 2014. The global average surface temperature rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.1 to 1.6° F) between 1960 and 2014, and the rate of temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further if the amount of fossil fuel combustion and deforestaion is not controlled.

Figure 2


Temperature increase is found to be linear in the last 50 years. A linear fit was performed on the data. This linear trend has been extrapolated to get the predictions of further teperature increase in the coming years (2050 and 2099) using the logic explained below.

where y is temperature on a given year x and m is the slope of the linear data fit. As calculation shows that temperature will increase around 2 % by 2099. Expectations of temperature incresae for each year untill 2100 are shown in figure 3 by extrapolating the linear trend found for the temperature incresae in th last 50 years.

Figure 3


Global Temprature Rise vs CO2 Emission


Temprature is rising as the carbon emission is increasing. Figures 4 and 5 shows the CO2 emission of China and USA with rest to global temperature change. Temperature incresae data for China and USA was not founbd so the CO2 emission from both the countries is plotted verses global temperature change to see the correlation between the two parameters. Both the figures show more or less a linear relationship between both the parameters. This clearly shows that earth temperature will keep on inceasing if the CO2 emission is not controlled.

Figure 4

Figure 5

Conclusion

Global warming, the gradual heating of Earth's surface, oceans and atmosphere , is caused by human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels that pump carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and other green house gases into the atmosphere. In this project two major climate change parameters CO2 emission and temperature increase in the last 50 years is analised. China and USA are seems to be the highest contributors to CO2 emission. A direct correlation has been observed in the temperature change and CO2 emission. Global temperature has increased 0.8 degree 0C in the last 50 years and if continues to incresae in the same way, our study shows that earth temperature will be incresaed by more than 2% by end of this century. Incraese of tempearture will have far-reaching, long-lasting, and devastating consequences for planet Earth including glaciers melting, extreme weather events, and sea levels and ocean acidification. Serious efforts are required globally to prevent global warming, which includes prevention of deforestation and tree-clearing and planting more trees through reforestation and afforestation, reducing the amount of electricity generated from coal and gas and increasing the amount of electricity from clean, renewable energy sources like solar and wind.


Refrences
[1] https://data.worldbank.org/topic/climate-change
[2] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter
[3] https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_stand_alone_LR.pdf